Thursday, January 22, 2009

OnlineSpin: My Belated Predictions For 2009

Last week Dave wrote "Gladwell's 'Outliers': Hard Work Matters."

R.J. Lewis wrote in response, "I give 'Outliers' five stars (one a five star scale). I really love the way Gladwell thinks, and conveys those thoughts on paper. He's got some very interesting perspectives.

The outlier 'successes' he identifies, had already put in their 10,000 hours of practice when the lucky aspect of being in the right time/right place arrived. Much like many of us (ahem... Dave Morgan a fine example), who were obsessed with online services and the Internet years before they seemed to be anything but a 'hobby' to most. When the time came, we already had our 10,000 hours of practice under our belts, so were able to capitalize, as experts, on opportunity more quickly.

Great read (along with 'Tipping Point' and 'Blink')."

Thursday, January 22, 2009
My Belated Predictions For 2009
By Dave Morgan

While I'm generally not a big fan of making predictions, I do think that they can be fun and can spark valuable thought and controversy. With that in mind, I belatedly offer up some of my predictions for the advertising and media industry this year. Here they are:

1) The economy will get much, much worse before it gets better. It pains me to write this, but I truly believe it.

2) While we will lose a number of ad and media companies before the year is out, the survivors will be much better positioned and structured to survive the tough economy by virtue of consolidation and restructuring.

3) At least two new digital companies will launch this year that will eventually have an impact on the market at the scale of eBay, Amazon and perhaps even Google. (Yes, even a Google -- maybe.) Tough times are great times to start revolutionary companies.

4) We will see massive consolidation among traditional media companies. This is an easy one.

5) We will see some significant legislative actions against the advertising and marketing industry. While that won't be the direct objective of the policymakers -- they will be trying to protect consumer privacy or helping people lead healthier lives -- the industry will suffer significant collateral damage from these efforts.

6) TV will prosper. Not only will better and cheaper TVs, and more video gaming, help drive more viewing, but users playing Internet content on TV, with more people staying home in the evening, will give a big, big boost to television usage.

7) Optimism will rule. Times will be tough, but a new president, continued adoption of powerful and exciting new technologies, and a willingness to push forward for new solutions will win in the end. We will emerge better and won't give up.

What do you think?

Dave Morgan, founder of TACODA and Real Media, is Chairman of -- and a partner in -- The Tennis Company, which owns, and TENNIS and SMASH Magazines.

Online Spin for Thursday, January 22, 2009:

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